WEC-47 Picks : Bowles vs Cruz

By Kumo, BetRepublic

WEC-47 Picks : Bowles vs. Cruz :

Mar 6, 2010 10:00 pm (Saturday)


Well, the lines are up for this weekend’s WEC-47: Bowles vs. Cruz in Columbus, Ohio. The event is being broadcast on Versus. Initially I was really looking at Cruz but now I’m favoring Bowles over Cruz for the Bantamweight title and then Torres over Benavidez in a good match as well.

Online sportsbooks have the numbers set at Cruz +205 to Bowles -255 and Benavidez +215 to Torres’ -275.

WEC-47 will feature Bowles’ first Bantamweight title defense since his KO of Miguel Torres. Bowles shouldn’t have an easy fight though, as Cruz’ only loss so far was against Urijah Faber. Bowles will favor the ground game and especially submissions. Even though Bowles has become dangerous on his feet, I’d look for him to either take Cruz down or knock him down and then work the submission. I wouldn’t expect it in the first round though as Cruz has good wrestling skills and is very tough as well.

I’m predicting a later round submission for Bowles.


Torres shows up with everything. I think if it wasn’t for the KO by Bowles, he would still be reigning for a while. This time out though he gets to show us his defense against a solid grappler. Benavidez stands a chance here, but in the end may just be outclassed by Torres. That’s no slight to Benavidez either. I expect Torres’ experience and skill to allow him to see the opening and work another submission victory. We’ll see if Torres can start building the comeback shot…

Watch WEC-47 Picks : Bowles vs. Cruz

I expect the favored Torres to win this one.


You can see all the WEC-47 picks and discussion at BetRepublic

Taurosevicius over LC Davis is good value at -140 to Davis’ +110. This may be the most evenly matched bout as both guys have solid (and similar) skills. Look for Taurosevicius’ wrestling to make the difference. My other quick pics for the match include Vasquez at -165 over Jens Pulver at +135 and Darabedyan -215 over Palaszewski +175.

Just an FYI, the WEC’s bantam weight is from 126lbs to 135lbs. These guys are cut, in shape and highly skilled. Very exciting division to watch and we’ve got two of the most notable bantamweights on the card and two very serious contenders. This should prove to be a great night of skilled fighters battling it out for victory. None of these fight should be easy, and to me that makes a great event. Hope you enjoy them as well.

MMA Picks: Getting Picks in Early

By Kumo

Online sportsbooks have embraced MMA as much as the mainstream media has, with most of them putting up MMA odds on all the fights. One of the things I believe is important to making a profit when betting on MMA is to look for great line value very early. I’ve been saying this often in our MMA picks and analysis forum over at BetRepublic (there is great MMA info there every day)…if you are into betting on the events, you want to make sure you have a look at the odds when they are first posted at your sportsbook, as you can find some gems.

Yes, you can also run some risk of additional news coming in that goes against your original bet, or after doing some more in-depth handicapping you realize you’re not as confident about the matchup and the fighter you chose, absolutely it can happen. That said, if you have done your homework, know the fighters, assess the lines properly and pick your spots, you can find some real gems when you step up when the lines first hit.

Let's take the last UFC as an example. Early lines appeared for Penn at around -190 or so. If you look at value, Pen at under -200 is awesome. Considering he was in great shape and came off the Florian fight with gas still in the tank, Penn was a good bet against anyone in the division, especially at anything under -200. BJ came in about -300 before the event, which was still decent but it wasn't sub two-hundred. An early commitment would have paid out handsomely.

The Alexander/Slice fight for the Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale showed this trend as well. With Alexander opening around -120 at most online sportsbooks and then gaining momentum as the favorite, he closed at the -300 range. An early bet would have been a good bet. If Alexander won of course. This just reminds us that we have to do our homework on the fighters as well. As you know, there's more to the bet than the making sure you get great odds.

If you know who you want to bet and will stick with that choice no matter how the action affects the lines, an early bet should be considered. Check out www.BetRepublic.com the day the lines come out as we always have a healthy discussion and a few early picks. Futures on your favorites can be a great value. Don't rush in though, but watch closely and when you see some movement and the direction they take, you should start considering your choices.

The main thing is to check lines early and to keep checking back. The next most important thing is to place the bet, because if you don't wager, you can't win.

Good luck with your MMA Picks.

UFC 106: Ortiz vs. Griffin Picks

Is Griffin out, can Ortiz make it back in?

UFC Picks: Takedown defence and the jab. Those should prove to be Forrest Griffin's best chances of success against Tito Ortiz this Saturday at UFC 106: Ortiz vs. Griffin II.

While Griffin is usually the underdog, this time Ortiz is coming in at +120 to Griffin's -150 over at online sportsbooks.

Why the advantage to Griffin? It might be Ortiz's recent 0-2-1 showing for his last three fights. It might even be his lack of finishing against Machida that could still be lingering and giving the advantage to Griffin because of his decent boxing skill, height and reach advantage, but let's not bring up Griffin's loss to Silva though...

Well now that it's been said, Griffin's loss to Silva has makes this as much a fight for relevance for Griffin as it is for Ortiz. Both of these seasoned veterans want to remain in the running in the light heavyweight division. They are both former UFC LHW Champions and they have already faced each other the past. Ortiz took the first match-up via split decision at UFC 59 in April 2006. While some may not be overly excited to see these two face off again, each one of these fighters needs this win to stay in the spotlight.

When the spotlight was on Ortiz, he was definitely exciting to watch when he took opponents down and ground them into the mat. While many other fighters have developed their wrestling abilities and takedown defense, Ortiz has seemingly failed to develop his stand-up game. To me, this leaves Ortiz as a star of yesterday and a faint hope for today. I hope Ortiz has developed his hands in the last year. Quite frankly, if it's more of the same old, I've seen it before and often enough that I'd want to see it from someone else. According to Tito, he's more than he ever was and he's more than in top form. In fact, he's going to give us the fight of the year. I'd settle for something new and exciting even if it wasn't fight of the year.

That's a lot to say against one of the top wrestlers in the sport, but Ortiz's hiatus was a bit of fresh air for me. If he's coming back to reign like he says he is, I for one have high expectations.

I hold those expectations for Griffin as well. Admittedly, Griffin's boxing is not the best, but it is good and at times has served him well. He could out-box Ortiz, but Ortiz is no marshmallow. He can take a few good shots, and Griffin hasn't demonstrated the knock out power to put Ortiz down early or decisively, and Griffin's never been famous for his power. So, that leads me to think that Griffin will have to out point him to win. If he wants to achieve this, he has to stay on his feet and keep Ortiz from taking him down. This may work some of the time, but in the end, I think Ortiz's attempts will start to wear Griffin down and eventually overwhelm him. I expect Ortiz will get his takedown and end up causing damage from the top position.

There, I've just talked myself into rooting for Ortiz. How does he make me do that?

I'm going with Ortiz, the underdog. Help us all...

UFC 104 Betting Picks: Machida vs. Shogun

Machida's skill and mastery out-class Shogun's aggressive muay thai. Machida over Shogun. At -405 I won't be betting on this one.

- Rothwell is my dog pick for this event. Valesquez is a rising star, but Rothwell's experience may actually be the difference here. Underdog pick is Rothwell at +235.

- I like Stevenson's chances against Fisher. Although Fisher could win this standing up, Stevenson will likely get Fisher to the ground and control the fight. I expect this one to go to a UD for Stevenson. I'm with the UFC betting odds makers here. Stevenson at -245 is a fair bet.

- Remember Yoshida eating Koschek's fists then being carried out of the cage on a stretcher? Johnson surely does. Many think this fight will be a replay as Johnson is being seen as a stronger, more physical fighter capable of KO'ing Yoshida. If it goes to the ground, Yoshida is favored. The problem is that Johnson is strong enough put off the takedown. I'm going with odds on this one. Johnson is -315. A small dog on Yoshida at +255 was being considered though.

- Okami's favored at -225 to Sonnen's +185 line. I believe this is Okami's third straight under card bout. He was once very close to getting a title shot with Silva until he broke his hand. Cote got the nod instead. Okami's winning again, but maybe not in a way that puts him in the "entertainment" column. Okami's got to dominate and destroy in order to get to the main card. Sonnen's a great match-up. Ultimately, this could end up in a decision.

- The Barry/Hardonk match-up could end with one of the fighters getting his walking papers. Reach and experience do go to Hardonk. Barry's 1-1 UFC, while Hardonk's 4-3 UFC. Lines are -110 for Barry, -120 for Hardonk. Barry's still fighting at heavyweight at 5'11". Personally, I'm staying away from this one. Barry should have too. (Sidenote: this could be a stand-up, leg-kick brawl - TKO on the way.)

- Darth Bader returns from a MCL and PCL knee injury from this April. The TUF 8 LHW winner, Ryan Bader, is heavily favored over Eric Schafer. At -435 for Bader and +355 for Schafer, you can see what the sportsbooks think of Schafer's chances. I agree.

Check out BetRepublic.com for all the most updated UFC 104 Betting odds and the UFC 104 Betting picks.

UFC 102 Odds and Picks, UFC Picks and Analysis at Bet Republic

UFC 102 Odds and Picks: A fight in UFC 102: Couture vs. Nogueira that holds a lot of interest for me is the Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski match-up.

This is a light heavyweight fight that will solidly place one of these fighters on the track towards the title. While Vera looked like he was on his way in the heavyweight division once, he eventually dropped weight to light heavyweight.

He was expected to start chewing up competition. So far, he has yet to dazzle and we are patiently waiting for him to make his break here. He's 10-3. While Vera is definitely talented and skilled, we're just waiting for consistently capable.

Overall, he remains quick, dangerous and threatening. Vera's fan's know he has devastating and somewhat unorthodox muay thai and a solid ground game to round himself out. We recognize his talent and we can see the potential in Vera, we just hope that he can put it all together. Fighting against Soszynski will definitely give him a chance to show us how seriously we should take him.

Check out BetRepublic for more UFC Picks and Analysis.

On the other hand, Soszynski has had great exposure through "The Ultimate Fighter" and hasn't disappointed yet. While Soszynski's been around, but he's a fairly new face in the UFC. His overall record is 18-8-1 and in the UFC he's 3-0.

He's fought under a few different promotions, most notably IFL and had some exposure on Strikeforce. This will be Soszynski's second time on the main card PPV. I believe this is an excellent opportunity for Soszynski. His fans believe in him.

So does Dan Henderson. Soszynski's a humorous, well spoken guy that people are noticing. If he keeps submitting with authority and showing us his knock-out capability - like he did when he KO'd Andre Gusmao at UFC 98 - he'll definitely have the momentum to start challenging for a contender position.

When asked about Vera, Soszynski said, "He's probably the first person in the UFC that I'm fighting that's really well-rounded, from striking to wrestling to his jiu-jitsu. It's going to be a huge test for me, but I'm really excited for the opportunity. I'm looking forward to this fight. I think it's going to be fireworks. We're going to stand and bang and see what happens."

I expect Vera's takedown defense to be sharp Saturday night, as Soszynski is quite comfortable on the ground. I think Soszynski is showing some maturity here in the pre-fight game because I really don't think he would want to stand and trade with Vera. I think he would much rather press for the take him down and use his size and strength to control Vera while looking for the submission.

I expect Vera to look like the early aggressor and gain control of the stand-up, but I think Soszynski will weather it and get him down to control him from the top.

I'm putting another win in the column for Soszynski. Second round submission, I almost said by decision. Either way, money's on Soszynski. I like this underdog bet.